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Raków Częstochowa vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2018

Raków Częstochowa
Raków Częstochowa
FT
2 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
8/5/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 3Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Raków Częstochowa49%
×Draw27%
Warta Poznań24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa
1.45
Warta Poznań
0.93

Raków Częstochowa creates 56% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 66 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa
1.76
Warta Poznań
1.06

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa
0.80
Warta Poznań
1.14

finishing

Raków Częstochowa+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
42%58%3.5
22%78%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa or draw
76%
Raków Częstochowa or Warta Poznań
73%
Draw or Warta Poznań
51%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa wins by 2+
24%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa 1+ goals
77%
Raków Częstochowa 2+ goals
42%
Raków Częstochowa 3+ goals
18%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
61%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
24%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa (draw refunded)
67%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa at home — creates 1.76, concedes 0.80 · 119 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa attack 1.76 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.45

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Raków Częstochowa defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Raków Częstochowa scores more
49%
level
27%
Warta Poznań scores more
24%

Raków Częstochowa at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Raków Częstochowa 2–2 Warta Poznań

Raków Częstochowa and Warta Poznań drew 2-2 in Ekstraklasa on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Miejski Stadion Piłkarski Raków in Częstochowa.