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Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice — I Liga 2018

Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Puszcza Niepołomice
Puszcza Niepołomice
12/1/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 21Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej (Poznań)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Warta Poznań37%
×Draw27%
Puszcza Niepołomice36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań
1.27
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 53 home / 103 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań
1.19
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.20

allows per match

Warta Poznań
1.25
Puszcza Niepołomice
1.35

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par
Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Puszcza Niepołomice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw
64%
Warta Poznań or Puszcza Niepołomice
73%
Draw or Puszcza Niepołomice
63%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+
16%
Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals
72%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
36%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
14%
Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals
71%
Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals
35%
Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
51%
Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Puszcza Niepołomice away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.35 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.19 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.27

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.20 + Warta Poznań defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Warta Poznań scores more
37%
level
27%
Puszcza Niepołomice scores more
36%

Warta Poznań at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań vs Puszcza Niepołomice

Warta Poznań beat Puszcza Niepołomice 2-0 in I Liga on December 1, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej (Poznań).