Puszcza Niepołomice 0–2 Warta Poznań

Puszcza Niepołomice

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Warta Poznań

10/22/2019

I Liga · Round 13Stadion ul. Kusocińskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Puszcza Niepołomice42%

×Draw28%

Warta Poznań30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Puszcza NiepołomiceExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.01

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.25

Warta Poznań

1.01

Puszcza Niepołomice creates 24% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 51 away

1.18

creates per match

0.88

1.14

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.18

Warta Poznań

0.88

allows per match

Puszcza Niepołomice

1.14

Warta Poznań

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Puszcza Niepołomice+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Puszcza Niepołomice ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–111%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Puszcza Niepołomice or draw

70%

Puszcza Niepołomice or Warta Poznań

72%

Draw or Warta Poznań

58%

Winning margin

Puszcza Niepołomice wins by 2+

19%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Puszcza Niepołomice 1+ goals

71%

Puszcza Niepołomice 2+ goals

36%

Puszcza Niepołomice 3+ goals

13%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

64%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

27%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Puszcza Niepołomice (draw refunded)

58%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Puszcza Niepołomice at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.14 · 102 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Puszcza Niepołomice attack 1.18 + Warta Poznań defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.25

Warta Poznań attack 0.88 + Puszcza Niepołomice defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Puszcza Niepołomice scores more

42%

level

28%

Warta Poznań scores more

30%

Puszcza Niepołomice at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Puszcza Niepołomice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff