Warta Poznań 0–1 Pogon Szczecin: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Pogon Szczecin

7/21/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 1Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań34%

×Draw28%

Pogon Szczecin37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchPogon Szczecin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.13

1.19

Warta Poznań

1.13

Pogon Szczecin

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 138 away

1.03

creates per match

1.26

1.11

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.03

Pogon Szczecin

1.26

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.11

Pogon Szczecin

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Pogon Szczecin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

63%

Warta Poznań or Pogon Szczecin

72%

Draw or Pogon Szczecin

66%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

14%

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

68%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

31%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

11%

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals

70%

Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals

33%

Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

48%

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Pogon Szczecin away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.23 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.13

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.26 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

34%

level

28%

Pogon Szczecin scores more

37%

Pogon Szczecin at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff