Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Pogon Szczecin vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2018

Pogon Szczecin
Pogon Szczecin
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
12/18/2021EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Pogon Szczecin46%
×Draw26%
Warta Poznań28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Pogon Szczecin
1.46
Warta Poznań
1.08

Pogon Szczecin creates 35% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

creates per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.77
Warta Poznań
1.06

allows per match

Pogon Szczecin
1.10
Warta Poznań
1.14

finishing

Pogon Szczecin+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Pogon Szczecin ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Pogon Szczecin or draw
72%
Pogon Szczecin or Warta Poznań
74%
Draw or Warta Poznań
54%

Winning margin

Pogon Szczecin wins by 2+
22%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Pogon Szczecin 1+ goals
77%
Pogon Szczecin 2+ goals
43%
Pogon Szczecin 3+ goals
18%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
66%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
29%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Pogon Szczecin (draw refunded)
62%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Pogon Szczecin at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.10 · 136 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Pogon Szczecin attack 1.77 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Pogon Szczecin defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Pogon Szczecin scores more
46%
level
26%
Warta Poznań scores more
28%

Pogon Szczecin at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Pogon Szczecin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Pogon Szczecin 1–1 Warta Poznań

Pogon Szczecin and Warta Poznań drew 1-1 in Ekstraklasa on December 18, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Floriana Krygiera in Szczecin.