Warta Poznań vs Legia Warszawa — Ekstraklasa 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 66+ matches
Warta Poznań34%
Legia Warszawa38%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 66 home / 136 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under59
- Over41
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No53
- Yes47
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Warta Poznań ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches
Legia Warszawa away — creates 1.27, concedes 1.21 · 136 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.12
Legia Warszawa attack 1.27 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 38%?"
Legia Warszawa at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 38% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
Warta Poznań substitutes
Lech Poznan
Jagiellonia
Gornik Zabrze
Raków Częstochowa
GKS KatowiceLegia Warszawa
Zaglebie Lubin
Wisla Plock
Pogon Szczecin
Radomiak Radom
Korona Kielce
Lechia Gdansk
Motor Lublin
Widzew Łódź
Cracovia Krakow
Piast Gliwice
Arka Gdynia
NiecieczaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
Warta Poznań host Legia Warszawa on Sunday, 19 May 2024 at 13:00. The match is part of the Ekstraklasa 2026/2027 season.
Ekstraklasa: Warta Poznań 0–1 Legia Warszawa
Legia Warszawa beat Warta Poznań 1-0 in Ekstraklasa on May 19, 2024.
Goals: R. Pankov (26').
Legia Warszawa controlled possession (65%) and registered 13 shots to 13.
The match was played at Stadion Respect Energy in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.