Legia Warszawa 1–0 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Legia Warszawa

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Warta Poznań

M. Rosołek 23'

10/8/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 12Stadion Miejski Legii Warszawa im. Marszałka Józefa Piłsudskiego

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Legia Warszawa48%

×Draw26%

Warta Poznań26%

✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.6%

Always home

44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legia WarszawaExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.04

Legia Warszawa

1.50

Warta Poznań

1.04

Legia Warszawa creates 44% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 66 away

1.86

creates per match

1.06

1.01

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Legia Warszawa

1.86

Warta Poznań

1.06

allows per match

Legia Warszawa

1.01

Warta Poznań

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legia Warszawa+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legia Warszawa ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Legia Warszawa or draw

74%

Legia Warszawa or Warta Poznań

74%

Draw or Warta Poznań

52%

Winning margin

Legia Warszawa wins by 2+

24%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Legia Warszawa 1+ goals

78%

Legia Warszawa 2+ goals

44%

Legia Warszawa 3+ goals

19%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

65%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

28%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Legia Warszawa (draw refunded)

65%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legia Warszawa at home — creates 1.86, concedes 1.01 · 138 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legia Warszawa attack 1.86 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.50

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Legia Warszawa defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Legia Warszawa scores more

48%

level

26%

Warta Poznań scores more

26%

Legia Warszawa at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Legia Warszawa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8

R. Augustyniak

Legia Warszawa · D

7.3

Match Events

23'

M. Rosołek

36'

Ernest Muçi

39'

Bartosz Slisz

46'

L. Rose← E. Muçi

61'

N. Mäenpää← M. Żurawski

61'

Miguel Luís← M. Szczepański

61'

D. Stavropoulos← K. Szmyt

66'

E. Destan← M. Kopczyński

70'

B. Kapustka← M. Rosołek

81'

B. Kramer← Carlitos

86'

M. Corryn← M. Kupczak

89'

R. Pich← Josué

90+5'

Enis Destan

90'

Jan Grzesik

90+2'

Jan GrzesikCard reviewed

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

LegiaWarta

Overview

54%Possession46%

14Total Shots10

9Corners4

12Fouls11

Shots

14Total Shots10

2On Target1

9Off Target6

3Blocked3

10Inside Box7

4Outside Box3

Passing

54%Possession46%

446Total Passes386

368Accurate Passes309

83%Pass Accuracy80%

Goalkeeping

1Saves1

Discipline

12Fouls11

2Yellow Cards2

1Offsides1