Warta Poznań 0–1 Lech Poznan: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Lech Poznan

Afonso Sousa 53'

9/18/2022

Ekstraklasa · Round 10Stadion Poznań

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań33%

×Draw28%

Lech Poznan39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchLech Poznan

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.10

1.24

Warta Poznań

1.10

Lech Poznan

1.24

Lech Poznan creates 13% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 137 away

1.03

creates per match

1.36

1.11

allows per match

1.17

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.03

Lech Poznan

1.36

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.11

Lech Poznan

1.17

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Lech Poznan+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Lech Poznan →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–112%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

68%32%2.5

41%59%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

61%

Warta Poznań or Lech Poznan

72%

Draw or Lech Poznan

67%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

13%

Lech Poznan wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

67%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

30%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

10%

Lech Poznan 1+ goals

71%

Lech Poznan 2+ goals

35%

Lech Poznan 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

45%

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Lech Poznan away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.17 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Lech Poznan defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.10

Lech Poznan attack 1.36 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

33%

level

28%

Lech Poznan scores more

39%

Lech Poznan at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

7

Afonso Sousa

Lech Poznan · M

8.0

Match Events

9'

Adam Zreľák

39'

Kristoffer Velde

53'

Afonso Sousa↳ F. Szymczak

58'

G. Tsitaishvili← K. Velde

58'

João Amaral← Afonso Sousa

62'

Giorgi Tsitaishvili

63'

M. Żurawski← M. Kopczyński

71'

M. Szczepański← Miguel Luís

71'

K. Szmyt← N. Mäenpää

73'

J. Karlström← N. Kvekveskiri

73'

A. Czerwiński← M. Skóraś

86'

Kajetan Szmyt

90+4'

Dimitrios Stavropoulos

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WartaLech

Overview

39%Possession61%

9Total Shots14

1Corners5

11Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots14

1On Target3

7Off Target7

1Blocked4

6Inside Box6

3Outside Box8

Passing

39%Possession61%

374Total Passes600

276Accurate Passes498

74%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

2Saves1

Discipline

11Fouls14

3Yellow Cards2

1Offsides0