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Lech Poznan vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2018

Lech Poznan
Lech Poznan
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
3/15/2024EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 25Enea Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Lech Poznan49%
×Draw26%
Warta Poznań25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lech Poznan
1.53
Warta Poznań
1.01

Lech Poznan creates 51% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

creates per match

Lech Poznan
1.93
Warta Poznań
1.06

allows per match

Lech Poznan
0.96
Warta Poznań
1.14

finishing

Lech Poznan+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lech Poznan ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Lech Poznan or draw
75%
Lech Poznan or Warta Poznań
74%
Draw or Warta Poznań
51%

Winning margin

Lech Poznan wins by 2+
25%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Lech Poznan 1+ goals
78%
Lech Poznan 2+ goals
45%
Lech Poznan 3+ goals
20%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
64%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
27%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Lech Poznan (draw refunded)
66%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lech Poznan at home — creates 1.93, concedes 0.96 · 136 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lech Poznan attack 1.93 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.53

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Lech Poznan defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.01

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Lech Poznan scores more
49%
level
26%
Warta Poznań scores more
25%

Lech Poznan at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lech Poznan will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Lech Poznan 2–0 Warta Poznań

Lech Poznan beat Warta Poznań 2-0 in Ekstraklasa on March 15, 2024.

The match was played at Enea Stadion in Poznań.