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Warta Poznań vs Jagiellonia — Ekstraklasa 2018

Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Jagiellonia
Jagiellonia
12/1/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 17Stadion Respect Energy

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań38%
×Draw27%
Jagiellonia34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań
1.27
Jagiellonia
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 138 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań
1.03
Jagiellonia
1.26

allows per match

Warta Poznań
1.11
Jagiellonia
1.52

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par
Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Jagiellonia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw
66%
Warta Poznań or Jagiellonia
73%
Draw or Jagiellonia
62%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+
17%
Jagiellonia wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals
72%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
36%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
14%
Jagiellonia 1+ goals
70%
Jagiellonia 2+ goals
33%
Jagiellonia 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
53%
Jagiellonia (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Jagiellonia away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.52 · 138 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Jagiellonia defence 1.52 → ÷2 → 1.27

Jagiellonia attack 1.26 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Warta Poznań scores more
38%
level
27%
Jagiellonia scores more
34%

Warta Poznań at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Warta Poznań 1–2 Jagiellonia

Jagiellonia beat Warta Poznań 2-1 in Ekstraklasa on December 1, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Respect Energy in Grodzisk Wielkopolski.