Jagiellonia 3–1 Warta Poznań: Result & Stats

Jagiellonia

FT

3 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Warta Poznań

4/29/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 30Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Jagiellonia44%

×Draw26%

Warta Poznań30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

JagielloniaExpected goals in this matchWarta Poznań

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.46

1.15

Jagiellonia

1.46

Warta Poznań

1.15

Jagiellonia creates 27% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 66 away

1.79

creates per match

1.06

1.24

allows per match

1.14

creates per match

Jagiellonia

1.79

Warta Poznań

1.06

allows per match

Jagiellonia

1.24

Warta Poznań

1.14

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Jagiellonia+0.00on par

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Jagiellonia ↓

Warta Poznań →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–18%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Jagiellonia or draw

70%

Jagiellonia or Warta Poznań

74%

Draw or Warta Poznań

56%

Winning margin

Jagiellonia wins by 2+

22%

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Jagiellonia 1+ goals

77%

Jagiellonia 2+ goals

43%

Jagiellonia 3+ goals

18%

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

68%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

32%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Jagiellonia (draw refunded)

60%

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Jagiellonia at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.24 · 136 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Jagiellonia attack 1.79 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.46

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Jagiellonia defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Jagiellonia scores more

44%

level

26%

Warta Poznań scores more

30%

Jagiellonia at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Jagiellonia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff