Warta Poznań 2–0 Gornik Zabrze: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Gornik Zabrze

7/29/2023

Ekstraklasa · Round 2Stadion Miejski w Grodzisku Wielkopolskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Warta Poznań38%

×Draw28%

Gornik Zabrze34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchGornik Zabrze

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.13

Warta Poznań

1.23

Gornik Zabrze

1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 136 away

1.03

creates per match

1.15

1.11

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.03

Gornik Zabrze

1.15

allows per match

Warta Poznań

1.11

Gornik Zabrze

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Gornik Zabrze →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

66%

Warta Poznań or Gornik Zabrze

72%

Draw or Gornik Zabrze

62%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

17%

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

71%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

35%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

13%

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals

68%

Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals

31%

Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

53%

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.03, concedes 1.11 · 66 matches

Gornik Zabrze away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.43 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.03 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.23

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.15 + Warta Poznań defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

38%

level

28%

Gornik Zabrze scores more

34%

Warta Poznań at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff