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Gornik Zabrze vs Warta Poznań — Ekstraklasa 2018

Gornik Zabrze
Gornik Zabrze
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
12/15/2023EkstraklasaEkstraklasa · Round 19Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Gornik Zabrze42%
×Draw27%
Warta Poznań31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gornik Zabrze
1.33
Warta Poznań
1.09

Gornik Zabrze creates 22% more chances

Season form · 138 home / 66 away

creates per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.53
Warta Poznań
1.06

allows per match

Gornik Zabrze
1.12
Warta Poznań
1.14

finishing

Gornik Zabrze+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gornik Zabrze ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Gornik Zabrze or draw
69%
Gornik Zabrze or Warta Poznań
73%
Draw or Warta Poznań
58%

Winning margin

Gornik Zabrze wins by 2+
19%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Gornik Zabrze 1+ goals
74%
Gornik Zabrze 2+ goals
38%
Gornik Zabrze 3+ goals
15%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
66%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
30%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Gornik Zabrze (draw refunded)
58%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gornik Zabrze at home — creates 1.53, concedes 1.12 · 138 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.14 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gornik Zabrze attack 1.53 + Warta Poznań defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.33

Warta Poznań attack 1.06 + Gornik Zabrze defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gornik Zabrze scores more
42%
level
27%
Warta Poznań scores more
31%

Gornik Zabrze at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gornik Zabrze will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ekstraklasa: Gornik Zabrze 3–0 Warta Poznań

Gornik Zabrze beat Warta Poznań 3-0 in Ekstraklasa on December 15, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion im. Ernesta Pohla in Zabrze.