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Warta Poznań vs Garbarnia Kraków — I Liga 2018

Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
7/27/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 2Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii (Grodzisk Wielkopolski)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Poznań54%
×Draw24%
Garbarnia Kraków22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań
1.69
Garbarnia Kraków
0.98

Warta Poznań creates 72% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 17 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań
1.19
Garbarnia Kraków
0.71

allows per match

Warta Poznań
1.25
Garbarnia Kraków
2.18

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw
78%
Warta Poznań or Garbarnia Kraków
76%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
46%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+
29%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals
82%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
50%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
24%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
62%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
26%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
71%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.25 · 53 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 0.71, concedes 2.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.19 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.69

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.71 + Warta Poznań defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Warta Poznań scores more
54%
level
24%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
22%

Warta Poznań at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań vs Garbarnia Kraków

Warta Poznań and Garbarnia Kraków drew 1-1 in I Liga on July 27, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Groclinu Dyskobolii (Grodzisk Wielkopolski).