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Garbarnia Kraków vs Warta Poznań — I Liga 2018

Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
11/17/2018I LigaI Liga · Round 19Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Garbarnia Kraków27%
×Draw29%
Warta Poznań44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Garbarnia Kraków
0.90
Warta Poznań
1.24

Warta Poznań creates 38% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Garbarnia Kraków
0.47
Warta Poznań
0.88

allows per match

Garbarnia Kraków
1.59
Warta Poznań
1.33

finishing

Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Garbarnia Kraków ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–115%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Garbarnia Kraków or draw
56%
Garbarnia Kraków or Warta Poznań
71%
Draw or Warta Poznań
73%

Winning margin

Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
9%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
59%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
23%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
6%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
71%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
35%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
38%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Garbarnia Kraków at home — creates 0.47, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 0.88, concedes 1.33 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Garbarnia Kraków attack 0.47 + Warta Poznań defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 0.90

Warta Poznań attack 0.88 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Garbarnia Kraków scores more
27%
level
29%
Warta Poznań scores more
44%

Warta Poznań at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Garbarnia Kraków vs Warta Poznań

Garbarnia Kraków beat Warta Poznań 2-1 in I Liga on November 17, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Henryka Reymana (Kraków).