Warta Poznań 1–0 Chrobry Głogów: Result & Stats

Warta Poznań

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Chrobry Głogów

R. Adamski 64'

6/29/2024

Friendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion przy Drodze Dębińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Warta Poznań55%

×Draw23%

Chrobry Głogów22%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta PoznańExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.81

1.07

Warta Poznań

1.81

Chrobry Głogów

1.07

Warta Poznań creates 69% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 11 away

1.80

creates per match

1.55

0.60

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Warta Poznań

1.80

Chrobry Głogów

1.55

allows per match

Warta Poznań

0.60

Chrobry Głogów

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań ↓

Chrobry Głogów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Warta Poznań or draw

78%

Warta Poznań or Chrobry Głogów

77%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów

45%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań wins by 2+

31%

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Warta Poznań 1+ goals

84%

Warta Poznań 2+ goals

54%

Warta Poznań 3+ goals

27%

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals

66%

Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals

29%

Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań (draw refunded)

71%

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.60 · 5 matches

Chrobry Głogów away — creates 1.55, concedes 1.82 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań attack 1.80 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.81

Chrobry Głogów attack 1.55 + Warta Poznań defence 0.60 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Warta Poznań scores more

55%

level

23%

Chrobry Głogów scores more

22%

Warta Poznań at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Warta Poznań will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

64'

R. Adamski

Warta

Chrobry

Manager: D. Szulczek

Manager: P. Plewnia