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Chrobry Głogów vs Warta Poznań — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Chrobry Głogów
Chrobry Głogów
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Warta Poznań
Warta Poznań
Trialist 89'
K. Ibe-Torti 45+5'
M. Ozimek 11'
Unknown 60'
7/11/2026Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Chrobry Głogów49%
×Draw21%
Warta Poznań30%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów
2.12
Warta Poznań
1.61

Chrobry Głogów creates 32% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 5 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów
2.23
Warta Poznań
2.00

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów
1.23
Warta Poznań
2.00

finishing

Chrobry Głogów+0.00on par
Warta Poznań+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów ↓

Warta Poznań →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów or draw
70%
Chrobry Głogów or Warta Poznań
79%
Draw or Warta Poznań
51%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów wins by 2+
29%
Warta Poznań wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów 1+ goals
88%
Chrobry Głogów 2+ goals
62%
Chrobry Głogów 3+ goals
35%
Warta Poznań 1+ goals
80%
Warta Poznań 2+ goals
48%
Warta Poznań 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów (draw refunded)
63%
Warta Poznań (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów at home — creates 2.23, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Warta Poznań away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów attack 2.23 + Warta Poznań defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.12

Warta Poznań attack 2.00 + Chrobry Głogów defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Chrobry Głogów scores more
49%
level
21%
Warta Poznań scores more
30%

Chrobry Głogów at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Chrobry Głogów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'
M. Ozimek
45+5'
K. Ibe-Torti
60'
89'
Trialist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chrobry Głogów 3 – 1 Warta Poznań

Chrobry Głogów beat Warta Poznań 3-1 in Friendlies Clubs on July 11, 2026.

Goals: M. Ozimek (11'), K. Ibe-Torti (45+5'), ? (60'), Trialist (89').