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Warta Poznań U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19 — Central Youth League 2020

Warta Poznań U19
Warta Poznań U19
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Raków Częstochowa U19
Raków Częstochowa U19
5/18/2024Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Warta Poznań U1942%
×Draw22%
Raków Częstochowa U1936%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań U19
1.92
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.75

Warta Poznań U19 creates 10% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 22 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań U19
2.03
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.64

allows per match

Warta Poznań U19
1.87
Raków Częstochowa U19
1.82

finishing

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U19 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U19 or draw
64%
Warta Poznań U19 or Raków Częstochowa U19
78%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa U19
58%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+
23%
Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals
85%
Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals
57%
Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals
30%
Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals
83%
Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals
52%
Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)
54%
Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
62%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U19 at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.87 · 30 matches

Raków Częstochowa U19 away — creates 1.64, concedes 1.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U19 attack 2.03 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.92

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.64 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Warta Poznań U19 scores more
42%
level
22%
Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more
36%

Warta Poznań U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Warta Poznań U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań U19 vs Raków Częstochowa U19

Warta Poznań U19 beat Raków Częstochowa U19 1-0 in Central Youth League on May 18, 2024.