Raków Częstochowa U19 0–4 Warta Poznań U19

Raków Częstochowa U19

FT

0 – 4

HT: 0 – 1

Warta Poznań U19

11/4/2023

Central Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1955%

×Draw21%

Warta Poznań U1925%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Raków Częstochowa U19Expected goals in this matchWarta Poznań U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.17

1.41

Raków Częstochowa U19

2.17

Warta Poznań U19

1.41

Raków Częstochowa U19 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 23 home / 30 away

1.52

creates per match

1.47

1.35

allows per match

2.83

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.52

Warta Poznań U19

1.47

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U19

1.35

Warta Poznań U19

2.83

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U19+0.00on par

Warta Poznań U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U19 ↓

Warta Poznań U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

48%52%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U19 or draw

75%

Raków Częstochowa U19 or Warta Poznań U19

79%

Draw or Warta Poznań U19

45%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U19 wins by 2+

33%

Warta Poznań U19 wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U19 1+ goals

89%

Raków Częstochowa U19 2+ goals

64%

Raków Częstochowa U19 3+ goals

36%

Warta Poznań U19 1+ goals

76%

Warta Poznań U19 2+ goals

41%

Warta Poznań U19 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U19 (draw refunded)

69%

Warta Poznań U19 (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U19 at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.35 · 23 matches

Warta Poznań U19 away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U19 attack 1.52 + Warta Poznań U19 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.17

Warta Poznań U19 attack 1.47 + Raków Częstochowa U19 defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Raków Częstochowa U19 scores more

55%

level

21%

Warta Poznań U19 scores more

25%

Raków Częstochowa U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff