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Warta Poznań U18 vs Raków Częstochowa U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
FT
3 – 2
Raków Częstochowa U18
Raków Częstochowa U18
10/9/2021Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Warta Poznań U1839%
×Draw23%
Raków Częstochowa U1838%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań U18
1.71
Raków Częstochowa U18
1.68

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 23 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań U18
1.33
Raków Częstochowa U18
1.48

allows per match

Warta Poznań U18
1.87
Raków Częstochowa U18
2.09

finishing

Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par
Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U18 ↓

Raków Częstochowa U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U18 or draw
62%
Warta Poznań U18 or Raków Częstochowa U18
77%
Draw or Raków Częstochowa U18
61%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
20%
Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
82%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
51%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
24%
Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals
81%
Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals
50%
Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
51%
Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Raków Częstochowa U18 away — creates 1.48, concedes 2.09 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.33 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 2.09 → ÷2 → 1.71

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 1.48 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warta Poznań U18 scores more
39%
level
23%
Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more
38%

Warta Poznań U18 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Warta Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań U18 vs Raków Częstochowa U18

Warta Poznań U18 beat Raków Częstochowa U18 3-2 in Central Youth League on October 9, 2021.