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Raków Częstochowa U18 vs Warta Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Raków Częstochowa U18
Raków Częstochowa U18
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
4/14/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Raków Częstochowa U1858%
×Draw20%
Warta Poznań U1822%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Raków Częstochowa U18
2.21
Warta Poznań U18
1.31

Raków Częstochowa U18 creates 69% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 15 away

creates per match

Raków Częstochowa U18
2.14
Warta Poznań U18
1.53

allows per match

Raków Częstochowa U18
1.09
Warta Poznań U18
2.27

finishing

Raków Częstochowa U18+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Raków Częstochowa U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Raków Częstochowa U18 or draw
78%
Raków Częstochowa U18 or Warta Poznań U18
80%
Draw or Warta Poznań U18
42%

Winning margin

Raków Częstochowa U18 wins by 2+
35%
Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Raków Częstochowa U18 1+ goals
89%
Raków Częstochowa U18 2+ goals
65%
Raków Częstochowa U18 3+ goals
38%
Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
73%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
38%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Raków Częstochowa U18 (draw refunded)
72%
Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Raków Częstochowa U18 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.09 · 22 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Raków Częstochowa U18 attack 2.14 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.21

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + Raków Częstochowa U18 defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Raków Częstochowa U18 scores more
58%
level
20%
Warta Poznań U18 scores more
22%

Raków Częstochowa U18 at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Raków Częstochowa U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Raków Częstochowa U18 vs Warta Poznań U18

Raków Częstochowa U18 and Warta Poznań U18 drew 1-1 in Central Youth League on April 14, 2022.