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Warta Poznań U18 vs Gwarek Zabrze U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Gwarek Zabrze U18
Gwarek Zabrze U18
4/23/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 25

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Warta Poznań U1853%
×Draw21%
Gwarek Zabrze U1826%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Poznań U18
2.08
Gwarek Zabrze U18
1.39

Warta Poznań U18 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

Warta Poznań U18
1.33
Gwarek Zabrze U18
0.90

allows per match

Warta Poznań U18
1.87
Gwarek Zabrze U18
2.83

finishing

Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par
Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U18 ↓

Gwarek Zabrze U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U18 or draw
74%
Warta Poznań U18 or Gwarek Zabrze U18
79%
Draw or Gwarek Zabrze U18
47%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
31%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
87%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
61%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
34%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals
75%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals
40%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
68%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Gwarek Zabrze U18 away — creates 0.90, concedes 2.83 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.33 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.83 → ÷2 → 2.08

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 0.90 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Warta Poznań U18 scores more
53%
level
21%
Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more
26%

Warta Poznań U18 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Warta Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Poznań U18 vs Gwarek Zabrze U18

Gwarek Zabrze U18 beat Warta Poznań U18 2-0 in Central Youth League on April 23, 2022.