Gwarek Zabrze U18 1–4 Warta Poznań U18

Gwarek Zabrze U18

FT

1 – 4

Warta Poznań U18

10/17/2021

Central Youth League · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Gwarek Zabrze U1835%

×Draw21%

Warta Poznań U1843%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gwarek Zabrze U18Expected goals in this matchWarta Poznań U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.82

2.03

Gwarek Zabrze U18

1.82

Warta Poznań U18

2.03

Warta Poznań U18 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

1.37

creates per match

1.53

2.53

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18

1.37

Warta Poznań U18

1.53

allows per match

Gwarek Zabrze U18

2.53

Warta Poznań U18

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gwarek Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gwarek Zabrze U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or draw

57%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 or Warta Poznań U18

79%

Draw or Warta Poznań U18

65%

Winning margin

Gwarek Zabrze U18 wins by 2+

18%

Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Gwarek Zabrze U18 1+ goals

84%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 2+ goals

54%

Gwarek Zabrze U18 3+ goals

27%

Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals

87%

Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals

60%

Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Gwarek Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)

45%

Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

65%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gwarek Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.37, concedes 2.53 · 30 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gwarek Zabrze U18 attack 1.37 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.82

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + Gwarek Zabrze U18 defence 2.53 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Gwarek Zabrze U18 scores more

35%

level

21%

Warta Poznań U18 scores more

43%

Warta Poznań U18 at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Warta Poznań U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff