Warta Poznań U18 1–5 Górnik Zabrze U18

Warta Poznań U18

FT

1 – 5

Górnik Zabrze U18

11/6/2021

Central Youth League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Warta Poznań U1831%

×Draw24%

Górnik Zabrze U1845%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta Poznań U18Expected goals in this matchGórnik Zabrze U18

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.71

Warta Poznań U18

1.37

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.71

Górnik Zabrze U18 creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 37 away

1.33

creates per match

1.54

1.87

allows per match

1.41

creates per match

Warta Poznań U18

1.33

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.54

allows per match

Warta Poznań U18

1.87

Górnik Zabrze U18

1.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Poznań U18 ↓

Górnik Zabrze U18 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Warta Poznań U18 or draw

55%

Warta Poznań U18 or Górnik Zabrze U18

76%

Draw or Górnik Zabrze U18

69%

Winning margin

Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+

14%

Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals

75%

Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals

40%

Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals

16%

Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals

82%

Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals

51%

Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)

40%

Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Poznań U18 at home — creates 1.33, concedes 1.87 · 15 matches

Górnik Zabrze U18 away — creates 1.54, concedes 1.41 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.33 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.37

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.54 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Warta Poznań U18 scores more

31%

level

24%

Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more

45%

Górnik Zabrze U18 at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff