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Górnik Zabrze U18 vs Warta Poznań U18 — Central Youth League 2020

Górnik Zabrze U18
Górnik Zabrze U18
FT
3 – 3
HT: 3 – 0
Warta Poznań U18
Warta Poznań U18
5/14/2022Central Youth LeagueCentral Youth League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Górnik Zabrze U1854%
×Draw21%
Warta Poznań U1825%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Górnik Zabrze U18
2.06
Warta Poznań U18
1.34

Górnik Zabrze U18 creates 54% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 15 away

creates per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.84
Warta Poznań U18
1.53

allows per match

Górnik Zabrze U18
1.16
Warta Poznań U18
2.27

finishing

Górnik Zabrze U18+0.00on par
Warta Poznań U18+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Górnik Zabrze U18 ↓

Warta Poznań U18 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Górnik Zabrze U18 or draw
75%
Górnik Zabrze U18 or Warta Poznań U18
79%
Draw or Warta Poznań U18
46%

Winning margin

Górnik Zabrze U18 wins by 2+
32%
Warta Poznań U18 wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Górnik Zabrze U18 1+ goals
87%
Górnik Zabrze U18 2+ goals
61%
Górnik Zabrze U18 3+ goals
34%
Warta Poznań U18 1+ goals
74%
Warta Poznań U18 2+ goals
39%
Warta Poznań U18 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Górnik Zabrze U18 (draw refunded)
68%
Warta Poznań U18 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Górnik Zabrze U18 at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.16 · 38 matches

Warta Poznań U18 away — creates 1.53, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Górnik Zabrze U18 attack 1.84 + Warta Poznań U18 defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 2.06

Warta Poznań U18 attack 1.53 + Górnik Zabrze U18 defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Górnik Zabrze U18 scores more
54%
level
21%
Warta Poznań U18 scores more
25%

Górnik Zabrze U18 at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Górnik Zabrze U18 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Górnik Zabrze U18 vs Warta Poznań U18

Górnik Zabrze U18 and Warta Poznań U18 drew 3-3 in Central Youth League on May 14, 2022.