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Warta Gorzów vs Starowice Dolne — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
4 – 4
HT: 1 – 1
Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
11/25/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 18Stadion Warty

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Warta Gorzów54%
×Draw23%
Starowice Dolne24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.87
Starowice Dolne
1.17

Warta Gorzów creates 60% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Starowice Dolne
0.94

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Starowice Dolne
2.38

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Starowice Dolne+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Starowice Dolne →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
76%
Warta Gorzów or Starowice Dolne
77%
Draw or Starowice Dolne
46%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
30%
Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
85%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
56%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
29%
Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
69%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
33%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
69%
Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Starowice Dolne away — creates 0.94, concedes 2.38 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.38 → ÷2 → 1.87

Starowice Dolne attack 0.94 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
54%
level
23%
Starowice Dolne scores more
24%

Warta Gorzów at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Warta Gorzów 4–4 Starowice Dolne

Warta Gorzów and Starowice Dolne drew 4-4 in III Liga - Group 3 on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Warty in Gorzów Wielkopolski.