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Starowice Dolne vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Starowice Dolne
Starowice Dolne
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
8/5/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Starowice Dolne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Starowice Dolne27%
×Draw23%
Warta Gorzów50%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Starowice Dolne
1.31
Warta Gorzów
1.85

Warta Gorzów creates 41% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 102 away

creates per match

Starowice Dolne
1.03
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Starowice Dolne
2.42
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Starowice Dolne+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Starowice Dolne ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Starowice Dolne or draw
50%
Starowice Dolne or Warta Gorzów
77%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
73%

Winning margin

Starowice Dolne wins by 2+
12%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Starowice Dolne 1+ goals
73%
Starowice Dolne 2+ goals
38%
Starowice Dolne 3+ goals
14%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
84%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
55%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
28%

Draw no bet

Starowice Dolne (draw refunded)
35%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Starowice Dolne at home — creates 1.03, concedes 2.42 · 33 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Starowice Dolne attack 1.03 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.31

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Starowice Dolne defence 2.42 → ÷2 → 1.85

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Starowice Dolne scores more
27%
level
23%
Warta Gorzów scores more
50%

Warta Gorzów at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Starowice Dolne 2–2 Warta Gorzów

Starowice Dolne and Warta Gorzów drew 2-2 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 5, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Starowice Dolne in Gmina Grodków.