Warta Gorzów 4–1 Ślęza Wrocław: Result & Stats

Warta Gorzów

FT

4 – 1

HT: 3 – 0

Ślęza Wrocław

J. Lutostanski 65'

F. Tuliszka 40'

K. Rybicki 33'

D. Siwinski 12'

P. Marcjan 71'

9/27/2025

III Liga - Group 3 · Group III - 10Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 103+ matches

Warta Gorzów37%

×Draw24%

Ślęza Wrocław40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta GorzówExpected goals in this matchŚlęza Wrocław

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.62

Warta Gorzów

1.55

Ślęza Wrocław

1.62

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 103 away

1.36

creates per match

1.83

1.41

allows per match

1.74

creates per match

Warta Gorzów

1.36

Ślęza Wrocław

1.83

allows per match

Warta Gorzów

1.41

Ślęza Wrocław

1.74

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Ślęza Wrocław →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw

60%

Warta Gorzów or Ślęza Wrocław

76%

Draw or Ślęza Wrocław

63%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

18%

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

79%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

46%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

20%

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals

80%

Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals

48%

Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

48%

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Ślęza Wrocław away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.74 · 103 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.55

Ślęza Wrocław attack 1.83 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more

37%

level

24%

Ślęza Wrocław scores more

40%

Ślęza Wrocław at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Afonso

12'

33'

40'

65'

71'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff