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Ślęza Wrocław vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Ślęza Wrocław
Ślęza Wrocław
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
3/29/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 23Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Ślęza Wrocław53%
×Draw22%
Warta Gorzów24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ślęza Wrocław
1.90
Warta Gorzów
1.21

Ślęza Wrocław creates 57% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Ślęza Wrocław
2.22
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Ślęza Wrocław
1.13
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Ślęza Wrocław+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ślęza Wrocław ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Ślęza Wrocław or draw
76%
Ślęza Wrocław or Warta Gorzów
78%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
47%

Winning margin

Ślęza Wrocław wins by 2+
31%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Ślęza Wrocław 1+ goals
85%
Ślęza Wrocław 2+ goals
56%
Ślęza Wrocław 3+ goals
29%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
70%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
34%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Ślęza Wrocław (draw refunded)
69%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ślęza Wrocław at home — creates 2.22, concedes 1.13 · 103 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ślęza Wrocław attack 2.22 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.90

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Ślęza Wrocław defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Ślęza Wrocław scores more
53%
level
22%
Warta Gorzów scores more
24%

Ślęza Wrocław at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ślęza Wrocław will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Ślęza Wrocław 0–0 Warta Gorzów

Ślęza Wrocław and Warta Gorzów drew 0-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Kompleks Piłkarski 1KS Ślęza Wrocław in Wrocław.