Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Warta Gorzów vs Odra Wodzislaw — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
0 – 2
Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
K. Chilinski 77', 42'
8/18/2021III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 3Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Warta Gorzów48%
×Draw23%
Odra Wodzislaw29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.83
Odra Wodzislaw
1.38

Warta Gorzów creates 33% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Odra Wodzislaw
1.35

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Odra Wodzislaw
2.29

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Odra Wodzislaw →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
71%
Warta Gorzów or Odra Wodzislaw
77%
Draw or Odra Wodzislaw
52%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
26%
Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
84%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
54%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
28%
Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
75%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
40%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
62%
Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Odra Wodzislaw away — creates 1.35, concedes 2.29 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.83

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.35 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
48%
level
23%
Odra Wodzislaw scores more
29%

Warta Gorzów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'
K. Chilinski
77'
K. Chilinski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Gorzów vs Odra Wodzislaw

Odra Wodzislaw beat Warta Gorzów 2-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 18, 2021.

Goals: K. Chilinski (42', 77').

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.