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Odra Wodzislaw vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Odra Wodzislaw
Odra Wodzislaw
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
3/20/2022III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Wodzislaw37%
×Draw23%
Warta Gorzów41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Odra Wodzislaw
1.63
Warta Gorzów
1.73

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

creates per match

Odra Wodzislaw
1.68
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Odra Wodzislaw
2.18
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Odra Wodzislaw+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

66%Yes
  • Yes66
  • No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Wodzislaw ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Odra Wodzislaw or draw
59%
Odra Wodzislaw or Warta Gorzów
77%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
63%

Winning margin

Odra Wodzislaw wins by 2+
18%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Odra Wodzislaw 1+ goals
80%
Odra Wodzislaw 2+ goals
48%
Odra Wodzislaw 3+ goals
22%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
82%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
52%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

Odra Wodzislaw (draw refunded)
47%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Wodzislaw at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.18 · 34 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Wodzislaw attack 1.68 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.63

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Odra Wodzislaw defence 2.18 → ÷2 → 1.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Odra Wodzislaw scores more
37%
level
23%
Warta Gorzów scores more
41%

Warta Gorzów at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Odra Wodzislaw 1–1 Warta Gorzów

Odra Wodzislaw and Warta Gorzów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 20, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Wodzisław Śląski.