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Warta Gorzów vs Odra Bytom Odrzański — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Odra Bytom Odrzański
Odra Bytom Odrzański
5/10/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 29Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Warta Gorzów46%
×Draw25%
Odra Bytom Odrzański29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.60
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.22

Warta Gorzów creates 31% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 34 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.03

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Odra Bytom Odrzański
1.85

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Odra Bytom Odrzański →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
71%
Warta Gorzów or Odra Bytom Odrzański
75%
Draw or Odra Bytom Odrzański
54%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
24%
Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
80%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
47%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
22%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals
70%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals
34%
Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
61%
Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.85 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.60

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.03 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
46%
level
25%
Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more
29%

Warta Gorzów at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Warta Gorzów 2–1 Odra Bytom Odrzański

Warta Gorzów beat Odra Bytom Odrzański 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 10, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.