Odra Bytom Odrzański 4–1 Warta Gorzów

Odra Bytom Odrzański

FT

4 – 1

Warta Gorzów

3/9/2024

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 20Stadion miejski w Bytomiu Odrzańskim

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Odra Bytom Odrzański39%

×Draw25%

Warta Gorzów35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Odra Bytom OdrzańskiExpected goals in this matchWarta Gorzów

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.47

1.38

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.47

Warta Gorzów

1.38

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 34 home / 102 away

1.35

creates per match

1.28

1.47

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.35

Warta Gorzów

1.28

allows per match

Odra Bytom Odrzański

1.47

Warta Gorzów

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Odra Bytom Odrzański+0.00on par

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

Over54
Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Odra Bytom Odrzański ↓

Warta Gorzów →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

54%46%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Odra Bytom Odrzański or draw

65%

Odra Bytom Odrzański or Warta Gorzów

75%

Draw or Warta Gorzów

61%

Winning margin

Odra Bytom Odrzański wins by 2+

19%

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Odra Bytom Odrzański 1+ goals

77%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 2+ goals

43%

Odra Bytom Odrzański 3+ goals

18%

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

75%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

40%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Odra Bytom Odrzański (draw refunded)

53%

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Odra Bytom Odrzański at home — creates 1.35, concedes 1.47 · 34 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Odra Bytom Odrzański attack 1.35 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.47

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Odra Bytom Odrzański defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Odra Bytom Odrzański scores more

39%

level

25%

Warta Gorzów scores more

35%

Odra Bytom Odrzański at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Odra Bytom Odrzański will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff