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Warta Gorzów vs Kluczbork — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
0 – 4
Kluczbork
Kluczbork
3/16/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 21Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Warta Gorzów36%
×Draw25%
Kluczbork39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.43
Kluczbork
1.49

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Kluczbork
1.57

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Kluczbork
1.50

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Kluczbork+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Kluczbork →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
61%
Warta Gorzów or Kluczbork
75%
Draw or Kluczbork
64%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
17%
Kluczbork wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
76%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
42%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
17%
Kluczbork 1+ goals
77%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
44%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
48%
Kluczbork (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Kluczbork away — creates 1.57, concedes 1.50 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Kluczbork defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.43

Kluczbork attack 1.57 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
36%
level
25%
Kluczbork scores more
39%

Kluczbork at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Gorzów vs Kluczbork

Kluczbork beat Warta Gorzów 4-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on March 16, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.