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Kluczbork vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Kluczbork
Kluczbork
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
8/3/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 102+ matches

Kluczbork48%
×Draw23%
Warta Gorzów29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kluczbork
1.77
Warta Gorzów
1.32

Kluczbork creates 34% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 102 away

creates per match

Kluczbork
1.95
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Kluczbork
1.36
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Kluczbork+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kluczbork ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kluczbork or draw
71%
Kluczbork or Warta Gorzów
77%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
52%

Winning margin

Kluczbork wins by 2+
26%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kluczbork 1+ goals
83%
Kluczbork 2+ goals
53%
Kluczbork 3+ goals
26%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
73%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
38%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kluczbork (draw refunded)
63%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kluczbork at home — creates 1.95, concedes 1.36 · 103 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kluczbork attack 1.95 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.77

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Kluczbork defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kluczbork scores more
48%
level
23%
Warta Gorzów scores more
29%

Kluczbork at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kluczbork will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Kluczbork 1–1 Warta Gorzów

Kluczbork and Warta Gorzów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Kluczbork.