Warta Gorzów 0–2 Chrobry Głogów II: Result & Stats

Warta Gorzów

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Chrobry Głogów II

T. Wojciechowski 86'

T. Krawiec 81'

10/8/2022

III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 11Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Warta Gorzów42%

×Draw26%

Chrobry Głogów II32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warta GorzówExpected goals in this matchChrobry Głogów II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.21

Warta Gorzów

1.42

Chrobry Głogów II

1.21

Warta Gorzów creates 17% more chances

Season form · 103 home / 17 away

1.36

creates per match

1.00

1.41

allows per match

1.47

creates per match

Warta Gorzów

1.36

Chrobry Głogów II

1.00

allows per match

Warta Gorzów

1.41

Chrobry Głogów II

1.47

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Chrobry Głogów II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw

68%

Warta Gorzów or Chrobry Głogów II

74%

Draw or Chrobry Głogów II

58%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+

20%

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals

76%

Warta Gorzów 2+ goals

41%

Warta Gorzów 3+ goals

17%

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals

70%

Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals

34%

Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)

57%

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Chrobry Głogów II away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.47 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.42

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.00 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more

42%

level

26%

Chrobry Głogów II scores more

32%

Warta Gorzów at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

81'

T. Krawiec

86'

T. Wojciechowski

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff