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Chrobry Głogów II vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Chrobry Głogów II
Chrobry Głogów II
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
5/13/2023III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 28MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Chrobry Głogów II30%
×Draw22%
Warta Gorzów48%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chrobry Głogów II
1.52
Warta Gorzów
1.96

Warta Gorzów creates 29% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 102 away

creates per match

Chrobry Głogów II
1.47
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Chrobry Głogów II
2.65
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Chrobry Głogów II+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chrobry Głogów II ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Chrobry Głogów II or draw
52%
Chrobry Głogów II or Warta Gorzów
78%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
70%

Winning margin

Chrobry Głogów II wins by 2+
14%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
27%

Team goals

Chrobry Głogów II 1+ goals
78%
Chrobry Głogów II 2+ goals
45%
Chrobry Głogów II 3+ goals
20%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
86%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
58%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
31%

Draw no bet

Chrobry Głogów II (draw refunded)
39%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chrobry Głogów II at home — creates 1.47, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chrobry Głogów II attack 1.47 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.52

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Chrobry Głogów II defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Chrobry Głogów II scores more
30%
level
22%
Warta Gorzów scores more
48%

Warta Gorzów at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Warta Gorzów will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 3: Chrobry Głogów II 1–1 Warta Gorzów

Chrobry Głogów II and Warta Gorzów drew 1-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at MZKS Głogów Boisko piłkarskie in Głogów.