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Warta Gorzów vs Carina Gubin — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
FT
1 – 2
Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
9/14/2024III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 8Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 85+ matches

Warta Gorzów37%
×Draw25%
Carina Gubin38%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warta Gorzów
1.44
Carina Gubin
1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 103 home / 85 away

creates per match

Warta Gorzów
1.36
Carina Gubin
1.51

allows per match

Warta Gorzów
1.41
Carina Gubin
1.51

finishing

Warta Gorzów+0.00on par
Carina Gubin+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warta Gorzów ↓

Carina Gubin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Warta Gorzów or draw
62%
Warta Gorzów or Carina Gubin
75%
Draw or Carina Gubin
63%

Winning margin

Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
17%
Carina Gubin wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
76%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
42%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
18%
Carina Gubin 1+ goals
77%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
43%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
49%
Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warta Gorzów at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.41 · 103 matches

Carina Gubin away — creates 1.51, concedes 1.51 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warta Gorzów attack 1.36 + Carina Gubin defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.44

Carina Gubin attack 1.51 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Warta Gorzów scores more
37%
level
25%
Carina Gubin scores more
38%

Carina Gubin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Warta Gorzów vs Carina Gubin

Carina Gubin beat Warta Gorzów 2-1 in III Liga - Group 3 on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR ul. Olimpijska in Gorzów Wielkopolski.