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Carina Gubin vs Warta Gorzów — III Liga - Group 3 2020

Carina Gubin
Carina Gubin
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Warta Gorzów
Warta Gorzów
4/12/2025III Liga - Group 3III Liga - Group 3 · Group 3 - 25Stadion Miejski Gubin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Carina Gubin42%
×Draw25%
Warta Gorzów33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Carina Gubin
1.48
Warta Gorzów
1.29

Carina Gubin creates 15% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 102 away

creates per match

Carina Gubin
1.38
Warta Gorzów
1.28

allows per match

Carina Gubin
1.29
Warta Gorzów
1.58

finishing

Carina Gubin+0.00on par
Warta Gorzów+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Carina Gubin ↓

Warta Gorzów →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Carina Gubin or draw
67%
Carina Gubin or Warta Gorzów
75%
Draw or Warta Gorzów
58%

Winning margin

Carina Gubin wins by 2+
20%
Warta Gorzów wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Carina Gubin 1+ goals
77%
Carina Gubin 2+ goals
43%
Carina Gubin 3+ goals
19%
Warta Gorzów 1+ goals
72%
Warta Gorzów 2+ goals
37%
Warta Gorzów 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Carina Gubin (draw refunded)
56%
Warta Gorzów (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Carina Gubin at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.29 · 84 matches

Warta Gorzów away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.58 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Carina Gubin attack 1.38 + Warta Gorzów defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.48

Warta Gorzów attack 1.28 + Carina Gubin defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Carina Gubin scores more
42%
level
25%
Warta Gorzów scores more
33%

Carina Gubin at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Carina Gubin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Carina Gubin vs Warta Gorzów

Warta Gorzów beat Carina Gubin 1-0 in III Liga - Group 3 on April 12, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski Gubin in Gubin.