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Warriors vs Nam Dinh — AFC Cup 2018

Warriors
Warriors
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Nam Dinh
Nam Dinh
9/18/2024AFC CupAFC Cup · Group Stage - 1Mong Kok Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Warriors46%
×Draw24%
Nam Dinh30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Warriors
1.66
Nam Dinh
1.31

Warriors creates 27% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Warriors
1.17
Nam Dinh
1.29

allows per match

Warriors
1.33
Nam Dinh
2.14

finishing

Warriors+0.00on par
Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warriors ↓

Nam Dinh →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Warriors or draw
70%
Warriors or Nam Dinh
76%
Draw or Nam Dinh
54%

Winning margin

Warriors wins by 2+
24%
Nam Dinh wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Warriors 1+ goals
81%
Warriors 2+ goals
49%
Warriors 3+ goals
23%
Nam Dinh 1+ goals
73%
Nam Dinh 2+ goals
38%
Nam Dinh 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Warriors (draw refunded)
60%
Nam Dinh (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warriors at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.33 · 6 matches

Nam Dinh away — creates 1.29, concedes 2.14 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warriors attack 1.17 + Nam Dinh defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 1.66

Nam Dinh attack 1.29 + Warriors defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Warriors scores more
46%
level
24%
Nam Dinh scores more
30%

Warriors at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Warriors will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

AFC Cup: Warriors 0–2 Nam Dinh

Nam Dinh beat Warriors 2-0 in AFC Cup on September 18, 2024.

The match was played at Mong Kok Stadium in Hong Kong.