Nam Dinh 3–0 Warriors: Result & Stats | AFC Cup

Nam Dinh

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Warriors

11/27/2024

AFC Cup · Group Stage - 5Sân vận động Thiên Trường

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Nam Dinh57%

×Draw20%

Warriors23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nam DinhExpected goals in this matchWarriors

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.29

1.42

Nam Dinh

2.29

Warriors

1.42

Nam Dinh creates 61% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

2.57

creates per match

1.83

1.00

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Nam Dinh

2.57

Warriors

1.83

allows per match

Nam Dinh

1.00

Warriors

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nam Dinh+0.00on par

Warriors+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nam Dinh ↓

Warriors →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Nam Dinh or draw

77%

Nam Dinh or Warriors

80%

Draw or Warriors

43%

Winning margin

Nam Dinh wins by 2+

35%

Warriors wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Nam Dinh 1+ goals

90%

Nam Dinh 2+ goals

66%

Nam Dinh 3+ goals

40%

Warriors 1+ goals

76%

Warriors 2+ goals

41%

Warriors 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Nam Dinh (draw refunded)

71%

Warriors (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nam Dinh at home — creates 2.57, concedes 1.00 · 7 matches

Warriors away — creates 1.83, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nam Dinh attack 2.57 + Warriors defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.29

Warriors attack 1.83 + Nam Dinh defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Nam Dinh scores more

57%

level

20%

Warriors scores more

23%

Nam Dinh at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Nam Dinh will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff