Warri Wolves 1–0 Shooting Stars: Result & Stats

Warri Wolves

FT

1 – 0

Shooting Stars

9/18/2016

NPFL · Round 36

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Warri Wolves56%

×Draw28%

Shooting Stars15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Warri WolvesExpected goals in this matchShooting Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

0.56

Warri Wolves

1.35

Shooting Stars

0.56

Warri Wolves creates 141% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 88 away

1.20

creates per match

0.59

0.54

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Warri Wolves

1.20

Shooting Stars

0.59

allows per match

Warri Wolves

0.54

Shooting Stars

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Shooting Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Warri Wolves ↓

Shooting Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Warri Wolves or draw

85%

Warri Wolves or Shooting Stars

72%

Draw or Shooting Stars

44%

Winning margin

Warri Wolves wins by 2+

28%

Shooting Stars wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Warri Wolves 1+ goals

74%

Warri Wolves 2+ goals

39%

Warri Wolves 3+ goals

15%

Shooting Stars 1+ goals

43%

Shooting Stars 2+ goals

11%

Shooting Stars 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Warri Wolves (draw refunded)

78%

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Warri Wolves at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.54 · 54 matches

Shooting Stars away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.50 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Warri Wolves attack 1.20 + Shooting Stars defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35

Shooting Stars attack 0.59 + Warri Wolves defence 0.54 → ÷2 → 0.56

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Warri Wolves scores more

56%

level

28%

Shooting Stars scores more

15%

Warri Wolves at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Warri Wolves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff