Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Shooting Stars vs Warri Wolves — NPFL 2019

Shooting Stars
Shooting Stars
FT
1 – 2
Warri Wolves
Warri Wolves
5/11/2016NPFLNPFL · Round 16Adamasingba Stadium (Ibadan)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 57+ matches

Shooting Stars62%
×Draw24%
Warri Wolves14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 584,459 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Shooting Stars
1.63
Warri Wolves
0.62

Shooting Stars creates 163% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 57 away

creates per match

Shooting Stars
1.61
Warri Wolves
0.68

allows per match

Shooting Stars
0.56
Warri Wolves
1.65

finishing

Shooting Stars+0.00on par
Warri Wolves+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Shooting Stars ↓

Warri Wolves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Shooting Stars or draw
86%
Shooting Stars or Warri Wolves
76%
Draw or Warri Wolves
38%

Winning margin

Shooting Stars wins by 2+
34%
Warri Wolves wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Shooting Stars 1+ goals
80%
Shooting Stars 2+ goals
48%
Shooting Stars 3+ goals
22%
Warri Wolves 1+ goals
46%
Warri Wolves 2+ goals
13%
Warri Wolves 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Shooting Stars (draw refunded)
82%
Warri Wolves (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Shooting Stars at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.56 · 87 matches

Warri Wolves away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.65 · 57 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Shooting Stars attack 1.61 + Warri Wolves defence 1.65 → ÷2 → 1.63

Warri Wolves attack 0.68 + Shooting Stars defence 0.56 → ÷2 → 0.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Shooting Stars scores more
62%
level
24%
Warri Wolves scores more
14%

Shooting Stars at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Shooting Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Shooting Stars vs Warri Wolves

Warri Wolves beat Shooting Stars 2-1 in NPFL on May 11, 2016.

The match was played at Adamasingba Stadium (Ibadan).