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Wanderers vs Boston River — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Wanderers
Wanderers
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 2
Boston River
Boston River
3/31/2024Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 6Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 82+ matches

Wanderers40%
×Draw30%
Boston River31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wanderers
1.15
Boston River
0.98

Wanderers creates 17% more chances

Season form · 86 home / 82 away

creates per match

Wanderers
1.03
Boston River
1.02

allows per match

Wanderers
0.95
Boston River
1.27

finishing

Wanderers+0.00on par
Boston River+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wanderers ↓

Boston River →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wanderers or draw
69%
Wanderers or Boston River
70%
Draw or Boston River
60%

Winning margin

Wanderers wins by 2+
17%
Boston River wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Wanderers 1+ goals
68%
Wanderers 2+ goals
32%
Wanderers 3+ goals
11%
Boston River 1+ goals
62%
Boston River 2+ goals
26%
Boston River 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Wanderers (draw refunded)
56%
Boston River (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wanderers at home — creates 1.03, concedes 0.95 · 86 matches

Boston River away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.27 · 82 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wanderers attack 1.03 + Boston River defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.15

Boston River attack 1.02 + Wanderers defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wanderers scores more
40%
level
30%
Boston River scores more
31%

Wanderers at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wanderers vs Boston River

Boston River beat Wanderers 2-0 in Primera División - Apertura on March 31, 2024.

The match was played at Parque Alfredo Víctor Viera in Montevideo.