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Boston River vs Wanderers — Primera División - Apertura 2018

Boston River
Boston River
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Wanderers
Wanderers
5/2/2025Primera División - AperturaPrimera División - Apertura · Apertura - 14Estadio Campeones Olímpicos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 81+ matches

Boston River36%
×Draw27%
Wanderers37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Boston River
1.23
Wanderers
1.24

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 85 home / 81 away

creates per match

Boston River
1.18
Wanderers
1.19

allows per match

Boston River
1.29
Wanderers
1.27

finishing

Boston River+0.00on par
Wanderers+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Boston River ↓

Wanderers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Boston River or draw
63%
Boston River or Wanderers
73%
Draw or Wanderers
64%

Winning margin

Boston River wins by 2+
16%
Wanderers wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Boston River 1+ goals
71%
Boston River 2+ goals
35%
Boston River 3+ goals
13%
Wanderers 1+ goals
71%
Wanderers 2+ goals
35%
Wanderers 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Boston River (draw refunded)
50%
Wanderers (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Boston River at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.29 · 85 matches

Wanderers away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.27 · 81 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Boston River attack 1.18 + Wanderers defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.23

Wanderers attack 1.19 + Boston River defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.24

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Boston River scores more
36%
level
27%
Wanderers scores more
37%

Wanderers at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wanderers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División - Apertura: Boston River 1–0 Wanderers

Boston River beat Wanderers 1-0 in Primera División - Apertura on May 2, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Campeones Olímpicos in Florida.