Walter Ferretti 1–0 Deportivo Las Sabanas

Walter Ferretti

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Deportivo Las Sabanas

9/20/2019

Primera Division · Apertura - 8Estadio Nacional de Fútbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Walter Ferretti63%

×Draw22%

Deportivo Las Sabanas15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Walter FerrettiExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Las Sabanas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.88

0.79

Walter Ferretti

1.88

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.79

Walter Ferretti creates 138% more chances

Season form · 143 home / 19 away

1.80

creates per match

0.58

1.01

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Walter Ferretti

1.80

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.58

allows per match

Walter Ferretti

1.01

Deportivo Las Sabanas

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walter Ferretti ↓

Deportivo Las Sabanas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–110%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–16%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Walter Ferretti or draw

85%

Walter Ferretti or Deportivo Las Sabanas

78%

Draw or Deportivo Las Sabanas

37%

Winning margin

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

38%

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

85%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

56%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

29%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

55%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

19%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

81%

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walter Ferretti at home — creates 1.80, concedes 1.01 · 143 matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.95 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walter Ferretti attack 1.80 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.88

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.58 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Walter Ferretti scores more

63%

level

22%

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

15%

Walter Ferretti at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Walter Ferretti will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff