Deportivo Las Sabanas 0–2 Walter Ferretti

Deportivo Las Sabanas

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Walter Ferretti

3/16/2020

Primera Division · Clausura - 8Estadio Solidaridad Augusto Cesar Mendoza

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Deportivo Las Sabanas40%

×Draw30%

Walter Ferretti30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Deportivo Las SabanasExpected goals in this matchWalter Ferretti

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

0.96

Deportivo Las Sabanas

1.15

Walter Ferretti

0.96

Deportivo Las Sabanas creates 20% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 137 away

0.94

creates per match

1.03

0.89

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.94

Walter Ferretti

1.03

allows per match

Deportivo Las Sabanas

0.89

Walter Ferretti

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Deportivo Las Sabanas+0.00on par

Walter Ferretti+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Las Sabanas ↓

Walter Ferretti →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Las Sabanas or draw

70%

Deportivo Las Sabanas or Walter Ferretti

70%

Draw or Walter Ferretti

60%

Winning margin

Deportivo Las Sabanas wins by 2+

17%

Walter Ferretti wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Deportivo Las Sabanas 1+ goals

68%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 2+ goals

32%

Deportivo Las Sabanas 3+ goals

11%

Walter Ferretti 1+ goals

62%

Walter Ferretti 2+ goals

25%

Walter Ferretti 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Las Sabanas (draw refunded)

57%

Walter Ferretti (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Las Sabanas at home — creates 0.94, concedes 0.89 · 18 matches

Walter Ferretti away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.35 · 137 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Las Sabanas attack 0.94 + Walter Ferretti defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.15

Walter Ferretti attack 1.03 + Deportivo Las Sabanas defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Deportivo Las Sabanas scores more

40%

level

30%

Walter Ferretti scores more

30%

Deportivo Las Sabanas at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Las Sabanas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff