Walsall 2–1 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Swindon Town

C. Barrett 90'

E. Weir 8'

W. Wright 79' (pen)

8/2/2025

League Two · Round 1Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Walsall34%

×Draw26%

Swindon Town39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.24

1.34

Walsall

1.24

Swindon Town

1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 11 home / 12 away

1.02

creates per match

1.34

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Walsall

1.02

Swindon Town

1.34

allows per match

Walsall

1.34

Swindon Town

1.46

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.01on par

finishing

Walsall-0.02on par

Swindon Town-0.01on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

61%

Walsall or Swindon Town

74%

Draw or Swindon Town

66%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

15%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

71%

Walsall 2+ goals

35%

Walsall 3+ goals

13%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

74%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

39%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

47%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.02, concedes 1.34 · 11 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.46 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.02 + Swindon Town defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.24

Swindon Town attack 1.34 + Walsall defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Walsall scores more

34%

level

26%

Swindon Town scores more

39%

Swindon Town at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Swindon Town will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

5

W. Wright

Swindon Town · D

8.7

Match Events

8'

E. Weir

21'

Brandon Comley

23'

L. Warrington← J. Stuttle

40'

B. Ameen← G. Kilkenny

46'

Lewis Warrington

46'

P. Glatzel← A. Drinan

52'

Harry Smith

56'

J. Tabor← T. Nichols

66'

Aaron Pressley

66'

J. Ball← T. Wilson-Brown

67'

C. Clarke← J. Jellis

68'

A. Adomah← A. Pressley

79'

W. WrightPenalty

84'

P. Farquharson← M. Hancock

84'

J. Hollman← C. Lakin

90'

C. Barrett↳ C. Clarke

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallSwindon

Overview

27%Possession73%

6Total Shots16

0.45Expected Goals (xG)1.81

1Corners5

13Fouls18

Shots

6Total Shots16

4On Target5

2Off Target8

0Blocked3

4Inside Box12

2Outside Box4

Passing

27%Possession73%

201Total Passes541

115Accurate Passes442

57%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

13Fouls18

2Yellow Cards1

1Red Cards0

1Offsides2