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Walsall vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Walsall
Walsall
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Swindon Town
Swindon Town
D. Johnson 89'
M. Faal 11'
P. Glatzel 68'
4/16/2024League TwoLeague Two · Round 40Poundland Bescot Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall37%
×Draw27%
Swindon Town36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Walsall
1.26
Swindon Town
1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 13 away

creates per match

Walsall
1.01
Swindon Town
1.24

allows per match

Walsall
1.27
Swindon Town
1.51

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par
Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Swindon Town →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw
64%
Walsall or Swindon Town
73%
Draw or Swindon Town
63%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+
16%
Swindon Town wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals
72%
Walsall 2+ goals
36%
Walsall 3+ goals
13%
Swindon Town 1+ goals
71%
Swindon Town 2+ goals
36%
Swindon Town 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)
50%
Swindon Town (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.51 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Swindon Town defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.26

Swindon Town attack 1.24 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Walsall scores more
37%
level
27%
Swindon Town scores more
36%

Walsall at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

8
I. HutchinsonWalsallWalsall · M
7.9

Match Events

11'
M. Faal↳ I. Hutchinson
48'
H. Hunt← T. Brewitt
59'
R. Hepburn-Murphy← J. Cain
59'
C. Austin← A. Drinan
60'
G. McEachran← N. Ofoborh
68'
D. James-Taylor← J. Gordon
68'
P. Glatzel↳ W. Kokolo
74'
Z. Elbouzedi← J. McGregor
77'
D. Johnson← R. Tierney
77'
T. Knowles← J. Foulkes
77'
J. Matt← M. Faal
87'
Ryan Stirk
89'
D. Johnson↳ J. Matt

Possession

37%Walsall

Shots

15Walsall

Pass accuracy

47%Walsall

Statistics

WalsallSwindon
Overview
37%Possession63%
15Total Shots14
5Corners7
7Fouls6
Shots
15Total Shots14
4On Target4
8Off Target6
3Blocked4
11Inside Box11
4Outside Box3
Passing
37%Possession63%
326Total Passes592
243Accurate Passes502
75%Pass Accuracy85%
Goalkeeping
2Saves2
Discipline
7Fouls6
1Yellow Cards0
0Offsides1

Match Recap: Walsall vs Swindon Town

Walsall beat Swindon Town 2-1 in League Two on April 16, 2024.

Goals: M. Faal (11'), P. Glatzel (68'), D. Johnson (89').

Swindon Town controlled possession (63%) and registered 14 shots to 15.

The match was played at Poundland Bescot Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.