Walsall 0–3 Swindon Town: Result & Stats

Walsall

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 3

Swindon Town

J. Payne 45+3' (pen), 25'

H. McKirdy 3'

5/7/2022

League Two · Round 46Banks's Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 12+ matches

Walsall38%

×Draw27%

Swindon Town36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WalsallExpected goals in this matchSwindon Town

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

1.25

Walsall

1.29

Swindon Town

1.25

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 12 home / 14 away

1.01

creates per match

1.22

1.27

allows per match

1.56

creates per match

Walsall

1.01

Swindon Town

1.22

allows per match

Walsall

1.27

Swindon Town

1.56

-0.09on par

finishing

+0.07on par

finishing

Walsall-0.09on par

Swindon Town+0.07on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Walsall ↓

Swindon Town →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Walsall or draw

64%

Walsall or Swindon Town

73%

Draw or Swindon Town

62%

Winning margin

Walsall wins by 2+

17%

Swindon Town wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Walsall 1+ goals

72%

Walsall 2+ goals

37%

Walsall 3+ goals

14%

Swindon Town 1+ goals

71%

Swindon Town 2+ goals

36%

Swindon Town 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Walsall (draw refunded)

51%

Swindon Town (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Walsall at home — creates 1.01, concedes 1.27 · 12 matches

Swindon Town away — creates 1.22, concedes 1.56 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Walsall attack 1.01 + Swindon Town defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.29

Swindon Town attack 1.22 + Walsall defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Walsall scores more

38%

level

27%

Swindon Town scores more

36%

Walsall at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Walsall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

J. Payne

Swindon Town · M

8.2

Match Events

3'

H. McKirdy

25'

J. Payne↳ L. Reed

45+2'

Donervon Daniels

45+3'

J. PaynePenalty

53'

Jonathan Williams

58'

B. Gladwin← J. Williams

62'

70'

73'

75'

79'

J. O'Brien← M. Baudry

87'

J. Shaw← J. Earing

89'

M. Sadler← E. Monthe

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

WalsallSwindon

Overview

49%Possession51%

15Total Shots12

7Corners5

11Fouls13

Shots

15Total Shots12

2On Target5

8Off Target4

5Blocked3

8Inside Box7

7Outside Box5

Passing

49%Possession51%

311Total Passes337

229Accurate Passes254

74%Pass Accuracy75%

Goalkeeping

2Saves2

Discipline

11Fouls13

2Yellow Cards2

3Offsides2

League Two: Walsall 0–3 Swindon Town

Swindon Town beat Walsall 3-0 in League Two on May 7, 2022.

Goals: H. McKirdy (3'), J. Payne (25', 45+3' pen).

Swindon Town controlled possession (51%) and registered 12 shots to 15.

The match was played at Banks's Stadium in Walsall, West Midlands.

Walsall vs Swindon Town — League Two 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

League Two: Walsall 0–3 Swindon Town